The SirCoupon ROI calculator models a single customer journey — not four independent campaigns running side by side.
- QR codes bring in new customers
- SMS re-engages the ones you already have
- Apple Wallet makes both work better
- Loyalty keeps your best customers coming back more often
Each channel plays a distinct role in that journey. Revenue is attributed once per customer action — so there is no double-counting across channels.
Step 1 — QR Code Acquisition
A customer walks into your restaurant and sees a QR code on a table tent, receipt, or window cling. A small percentage scan it, and of those, a portion complete the opt-in to receive an offer. These are brand-new customers entering your marketing funnel for the first time.
Step 2 — Apple Wallet Delivery Rate Modifier
Once someone signs up, the offer has to be delivered. Without Wallet, it arrives as an SMS link. With Wallet, the offer is saved as a pass directly to the customer's phone — visible on their lock screen and easy to pull up at the register.
| SMS link only | 22% redeem rate |
| Apple Wallet | 31% redeem rate |
Step 3 — New Customer Revenue
Signups who redeem their offer come back in and make a purchase. Research across food & beverage merchants shows that customers visiting on a promoted offer spend about 35% more than their baseline average order — the offer creates intent, and add-ons follow.
Step 4 — SMS Re-engagement
Your existing subscriber list — people who opted in from past QR campaigns or SMS keywords — receives one promotional campaign per month. This drives return visits that would not have happened without the nudge.
This is why the calculator asks for your current list size. A merchant with 50 subscribers and one with 5,000 have very different SMS revenue potential, even if foot traffic is identical.
Step 5 — Your List Grows Every Month
Each month, new QR signups add to your subscriber base. The calculator uses your current list size for this month's projection, but in practice your SMS revenue compounds over time. A merchant running SirCoupon for 12 months has a much larger and more engaged list than they did on day one — and each monthly campaign becomes more valuable as a result.
Step 6 — Loyalty Retention Growth Plan Only
A portion of engaged customers (new QR redeemers + SMS redeemers) enroll in the loyalty program. Loyalty members visit more frequently than non-members — the model estimates approximately 0.9 extra visits per member per month above their normal cadence.
The number of unique customers who walk into your restaurant in a typical month, per location. This is your top-of-funnel — every other projection flows from it.
How to estimate: Pull covers from your POS for a recent month. Or use: seats × avg turns per day × operating days.
The average amount a customer spends per visit. Used at every stage of the funnel, then multiplied by a spend lift factor for visits driven by a promotion.
How to find it: Total monthly revenue ÷ total transactions. Your POS should report this directly as "average ticket."
Each location runs its own campaigns independently. Foot traffic and plan cost both scale linearly — one plan subscription per location.
Note: This calculator assumes uniform deployment across locations. Actual results may vary if QR placement or offer quality differs by site.
How many customers have already opted in to receive texts from you. New QR signups each month add to this base. The larger the list, the more your monthly SMS campaign returns.
Just getting started? Set this to 0. QR and Wallet still generate new-customer revenue on day one. Your list builds from there.
All rates are drawn from industry benchmarks for food & beverage merchants running QR, SMS, and digital pass promotions. They represent realistic mid-range performance — not best-case projections.
| Rate | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| QR Scan Rate | 5% | Of all guests who walk in, 5% scan a QR code when it's placed on tables, receipts, or at the register |
| QR Opt-In Rate | 38% | Of those who scan, 38% complete the signup flow to receive an offer |
| Redeem Rate — SMS Link | 22% | New signups who redeem their offer when delivered via SMS link |
| Redeem Rate — Wallet | 31% | New signups who redeem when delivered via Apple Wallet pass — higher because it lives on the lock screen |
| SMS Campaign Redeem Rate | 14% | Of your existing subscriber list, 14% redeem a monthly promotional SMS (delivered as a link) |
| SMS + Wallet Redeem Rate | 19% | Same campaign, but the offer lands in Apple Wallet — reduced friction lifts the rate meaningfully |
| New Customer Spend Lift | 1.35× | Customers visiting on a first-time offer spend ~35% more than their baseline order value |
| Return Visit Spend Lift | 1.28× | SMS-driven return visitors spend ~28% above baseline — slightly lower than new customers but still material |
| Loyalty Enrollment Rate | 20% | Of total engaged customers in a given month, 20% enroll in the loyalty program |
| Loyalty Extra Visits / Mo | 0.9 | Loyalty members make roughly 0.9 more visits per month than non-members — about one extra visit every 5–6 weeks |
No. These are estimates based on industry benchmarks, not guarantees. Actual results depend on offer quality, QR placement, list engagement, cuisine type, and how well staff are trained to promote signups. Restaurants that actively feature their QR codes and run compelling offers consistently outperform these benchmarks. Those that deploy passively tend to underperform.
Because SMS re-engagement is where the compounding happens. A new merchant's first month may show modest ROI from QR alone. But after 6–12 months of accumulating subscribers, a single monthly campaign to a list of 2,000+ people can generate more revenue than all the QR signups that month combined. The calculator lets you model both scenarios so you can see the trajectory.
Because it does not generate revenue independently — it makes your existing campaigns perform better. A Wallet pass is a delivery mechanism. It does not bring in customers on its own; it makes customers who already received an offer more likely to act on it. Modeling it as a separate revenue stream would inflate the numbers and misrepresent how it actually works.
Only visits and spend that would not have happened without SirCoupon. The spend lift multipliers are conservative estimates of how much more a promoted visit is worth compared to a baseline visit. We do not count the baseline spend — only the lift above what the customer would have spent anyway.
Not directly — because the discount amount is entirely up to you and varies widely. Some merchants offer a free appetizer; others offer 10% off a check. The ROI shown is gross revenue from promoted visits. To calculate net ROI, subtract your offer cost from the estimated revenue figure shown.
Ready to run the numbers for your restaurant?
Plug in your own foot traffic, order size, and list size to see a projection built on your specific numbers.
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